TheTraderPOV

Update On Markets~ FED Rate Decision Tomorrow Since our last post, the markets have continued to trade lower, albeit not in too much of a hurry from a larger time frame perspective (intraday moves have been wild in a lot of markets).  With the FED set to raise rates tomorrow, it'll be interesting to see what they say considering everything going on outside of the markets i.e., Ukraine/Russian War, inflation, spikes in commodities, and potentially headwinds regarding China. Anyway, charts I'm watching going into tomorrow's FED meeting: ^^^$ES/$MES Daily & 4hr charts.           *Looking for a retest lower to ~$4200 before holding to bounce for a bullish close above $4250-$4300.  ^^^ $NQ/$MNQ Daily & 4hr charts.          -Same thing for Nasdaq, retest lower for a hold and bounce to close higher.   ^^^$CL Daily chart          - Crude is still something to watch with opportunities on both sides of the market, longs <$92 and shorts above $105s.  $VIX Weekly & Dail

 Hey all, I wanted to get out a few charts looking at higher time frames to get an idea of what's going on and what may happen next. First of all, the lows we've talked about the last few weeks that have held up - well, they no longer are holding.  Both $ES and $NQ lows have broke - see below $MES/$ES Daily Chart - lows breaking   $MNQ/$NQ Daily Chart - lows breaking Taking a look at the weekly charts, you can clearly see we have broke the recent lows, both tagging the levels (indicated by the wicks on candles) and now the last couple sessions closing below the recent lows. We've clearly set highs, broke down through the last line in the sand for buyers (demand zone ~$4560s), attempted to rally back to the highs/levels where prices broke down, but couldn't hold.  This to me looks like we are in for more downside to come - at least in the short term. We'll see what happens now till the Fed's March meeting in 3 weeks when rates are supposed to rise(they alread

 What Next? Hey guys, just wanted to give an update to the broader markets again, specifically the $MES/$ES and $MNQ/$NQ. Over the last several weeks we talked about the S&P needing to hold a previous weekly/daily swing low area from last October (2021).  * see below* $ES/$MES Weekly Cash Session Chart   So.... we held that level - then bounced - then failed $4550s-$4600 - retested that area - failed again... As you can see from the chart above, we currently are holding the $4300s most recent swing low. So, if we can hold these levels and set a higher low the markets should continue to bounce for a potential takeout and clearing of  +$4600s.  We can also see this price action happening on the $MNQ/$NQ futures contract as well. *see below* $MNQ Daily Chart - Possible higher low forming For the $MNQ/$NQ we want to see the $14000s hold and this possible higher low forming on the daily chart to complete and get a move above $15200s. We will see how the rest of the week plays out, but

Where Are We Headed Next? Starting the Week ---> Last week we saw the markets continue to rally off the recent lows with a test of close to $4,600's area. See weekly $ES cash chart below   From the chart above you can also see we started the week inside last weeks trading range, and have stalled out around some previous demand/support levels.  Where are we headed next? Let's look at a Daily chart of the $ES to find some likely areas we can see the markets trade.   From the chart above you can see that we've entered previous areas of support, stalled out and potentially may be setup to pull back a bit in the short term.  If the markets can hold around these prices and show some buying/support, look for a move back to last week's highs. If we fail to hold current prices, look for the move back down to the $4,350's to see if we can hold to create a higher low .  If the higher low forms, look for a move back up to last week's highs and beyond.  If it doesn't,

Sorry for the late post, but wanted to cover last week's price action.  We talked early on in  the week about how the market was testing a previous swing low from October '21 that took us to a new all-time-high.  Last week we wanted to see if the $MES/$ES could hold the ~$4,284-$4,300 area on the Daily chart.  Looking at the chart below you can see that we clearly violated the level (yellow oval area) but never got a close below ~$4,300 area. With that being said, I'd expect the market to move higher from its current level for a retest ~$4,500 or higher in the near term. US Cash Session Charts For S&P500 On the weekly chart we wanted to see if the $MES/$ES could hold and close above the $4,320s. We got the test below that October swing and tagged a previous area of demand that took us up to new  all-time-highs (~$4,200 - $4,220s) for the time being around ~$4,530s.                                                                    $ES US cash session Weekly Chart If the

 VOLATILITY IS HERE!  Man, what a crazy trading day!  Huge gap down day to start, VIX exploding +30% higher, and then comes the massive dead cat bounce rally.  $MNQ/$NQ rallies over 715 points from the lows and all the indexes reverse to close positive.  Dow rallies, S&P rallies and $IWM rallies to close +2.3%! Very interesting day that had plenty of opportunities on both sides of the market. Let's recap last week before I talk more about today and what potentially I see happening in the short term~ $MES/$ES rejected off recent All time highs and rejected lower to form a new lower high ~ $4650s $MES/$ES broke below $4572, was tested and failed to move lower $MES/$ES broke and failed to hold the $4550-$4500 range, setting us up for a test lower into a weekly swing area from October 2021.  Fast forward to today- huge gap down on both a daily and weekly chart. We gapped down into the recent October 2021 swing low.  We opened in the level, broke the lows, but could not close below

Well, we failed to hold onto the levels from yesterday, and just as we suspected, a move to the 4450s would be up next.  Fast forward into today's close and halt for the Globex session the $MES/$ES hit a low of 4437.75. **At the time of finishing writing this post the market broke those prices and tagged 4330s with more lows looking likely.** So, what does this mean going forward in the short term?   Well, we're currently sitting at an area in price where the $MES previously broke out of a range and ultimately made a new all-time-high. This is the first time back to this price area, so we will see if it holds. If we get a hold at these levels, expect a move back up toward the > $4,600-$4,660 range.  If, we fail to hold this level, more room to the downside makes sense into an area of demand seen on the weekly chart + daily chart gap fill area ==> $4,390-$4,353 on the cash index SPX & ~ $4,373 - $4,340s on $MES/$ES.  With all this volatility comes plenty of opportunity